It’s time to shed our doubts and open up the economy. It needs to be done carefully, methodically and with an eye towards the vulnerable, but it needs to happen.

For your reflection and inspiration, following are extracts from two articles that were written before the pandemic explosion and lockdowns hit the US and one that was written yesterday.The first article was written in 2020, but references statistics from 2018. (“Rate” is rate per 100,000)

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Top 10 causes of death in the US in 2020
by Liz Meszaros
February 27, 2020
https://www.mdlinx.com/article/top-10-causes-of-death-in-the-us-in-2020/MNpEowpA8DXKBUNcbmkpY

According to the latest data from the CDC’s National Vital Statistics System for 2018, the 10 leading causes of death in 2018 stayed the same as in 2017. Decreases in 6 of the 10 leading causes of death were seen, but there were increases in influenza-/pneumonia- and suicide-related deaths. The remaining 2 of the 10 causes—diabetes and kidney disease—evidenced no significant changes.

Here, in descending order, are the top 10 causes of death in the United States:

10. Suicide: 48,344 Rate: 14.2 Percent of deaths: 1.7%
9. Kidney disease: 51,386 Rate: 12.9 Percent of deaths: 1.8%
8. Influenza and pneumonia: 59,120 Rate: 14.9 Percent of deaths: 2.1%
7. Diabetes: 84,946 Rate: 21.4 Percent of deaths: 3%
6. Alzheimer disease: 122,019 Rate: 30.5 Percent of deaths: 4.3%
5. Cerebrovascular diseases: 147,810 Rate: 37.1 Percent of deaths: 5.2%
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 159,486 Rate: 39.7 Percent of deaths: 5.6%
3. Accidents/unintentional injuries: 167,127 Rate: 48.0 Percent of deaths: 5.9%
2. Cancer: 599,274 Rate: 149.1 Percent of deaths: 21.1%
1. Heart disease: 655,381 Rate: 163.6 Percent of deaths: 23.1%


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Five of the Worst Flu Outbreaks In Recent History
by Simone M. Scully
January 31, 2020
https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/news/2020-01-31-5-worst-flu-outbreaks-in-recent-history

The current 2019-2020 flu season is on track to be one of the worst in a decade. According to the CDC, between 19-26 million people have caught the flu since October and between 10,000-25,000 people have died. But as bad as the seasonal flu is this year, it pales in comparison to some of the biggest flu pandemics in history.

The “Russian Flu” Epidemic of 1889
Known as the “Russian Flu,” this influenza outbreak is believed to have begun in St. Petersburg but it soon spread across Europe and the world. It was one of the first epidemics that was covered regularly by the developing daily press. Newspapers wrote about the local spread of the disease and also discussed the situation in other distant European cities thanks to telegraph reports. It is estimated that around 1 million people died of the Russian Flu.

The 1918-19 “Spanish Flu” Pandemic
Known at the time as the “Spanish Flu,” this flu pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recorded history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus. According to the CDC, an estimated 500 million people — or 1/3rd of the world’s population — caught the virus during the pandemic and between 50 million and 100 million people were killed. 675,000 died in the United States alone. Some victims died within mere hours or days of developing symptoms.

The 1957-58 “Asian Flu” Pandemic
Approximately 1.1 million people died worldwide, according to the CDC; of those deaths, 116,000 were in the US. Most of the cases affected young children, the elderly and pregnant women. While deadly, the death rate in this pandemic was relatively contained because a vaccine was rapidly developed and made available. There were also antibiotics available to treat secondary infections.

The 1968 “Hong Kong Flu” Pandemic
An Influenza A virus (H3N2) outbreak in China led to the flu pandemic of 1968, also known as the “Hong Kong Flu.” It started in 1968 and lasted until 1969-70. The virus responsible for the pandemic is believed to have evolved from the strain of influenza that caused the 1957 pandemic through “antigenic shift” — an abrupt, major change in the virus that results in new surface proteins, creating a virus subtype that humans have little or no immunity to because the body doesn’t recognize its surface proteins.

According to the CDC, approximately 1 million people around the world died from this pandemic, and 100,000 of those deaths occurred in the United States.

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
In 2009, a new kind of influenza A (H1N1) virus emerged in the United States and spread quickly around the world. Initially known as “swine flu,” this particular subtype of virus contained a novel combination of influenza genes that hadn’t previously been identified in animals or people. The virus was designated as (H1N1)pdm09.

Very few young people had any existing immunity to the virus, but about 1/3rd of people over 60 had antibodies against it. Because it was very different than other H1N1 viruses, the seasonal vaccinations didn’t offer much cross-protection either. When a vaccine was finally made, it was not available in large quantities until late November, after the illness had already peaked.

The CDC estimates that between 151,700 – 575,400 people died worldwide during the first year that the (H1N1)pdm09 virus circulated. About 80% of those deaths are believed to have been people younger than 65 — which is unusual. During typical seasonal influenza epidemics, 70-90 percent of deaths occur in people over 65.



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Losing Our Fears, in War and Plague
by Victor Davis Hanson
May 14, 2020
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/coronavirus-pandemic-us-economy-lessons-from-world-war-2/

On the morning of December 7, 1941, the day of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, German invaders were on the verge of capturing Moscow. Britain was isolated. London had barely survived a terrible German bombing during the Blitz. A sleeping America was neutral, but it was beginning to realize it was weak and mostly unarmed in a scary world.

But by 1943, a booming U.S. economy was fielding vast military forces from Alaska to the Sahara. Britain and America were bombing the German heartland. The Soviet Red Army had trapped and destroyed a million-man German army at Stalingrad.

How did the Allies — Britain, the Soviet Union, and the U.S. — turn around the European war so quickly?

The huge Red Army would suffer close to 11 million deaths in halting German offensives. Britain would never give up despite terrible losses at home and at sea from German bombers, rockets, and submarines. Yet the key to victory was the U.S. economy. It would eventually outproduce all the major economies on both sides of the war combined.

Most importantly, Americans lost their fears.

Does World War II offer any lessons regarding our wrecked economy and staggering unemployment from the lockdown reaction to the coronavirus? Perhaps. Government cannot restore prosperity. Only entrepreneurs and risk-takers can. Americans must master their fears of the virus and dare to go back to work.

All that is missing is confidence — or rather, the conviction that the coronavirus is no more dangerous than were the Axis powers and can be beaten far more quickly if we show the sort of will our grandparents had.